New research shows warmer climates lead to more extreme rainfall
| Author: Liz Allan | Published: 11th August 2008 21:46 |
New research from the University o
f Reading published in this week's journal of Science provides the first observational evidence of satellite data to confirm the link between a warmer climate and more intense tropical rainstorms. Climate models have long predicted that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events. Importantly, in this research, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than predicted previously, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes may have been underestimated.
Dr Richard Allan of the University of Reading and Dr Brian J. Soden from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science used naturally-driven changes in climate associated with El Niño to investigate how precipitation responds to a warmer climate. The research found that both satellite observations and models indicated an increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate. However, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes was found to be substantially larger in the observations than predicted by climate prediction models.
Dr Richard Allan said: "Comparing observations with results from computer models improves our understanding of how rainfall responds to a warming world. Differences can relate to deficiencies in the measurements, or the models used to predict future climatic change. This research is based on 20 years of satellite observations, and we found a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature. This means that heavy rain events are likely to increase during warm periods and decrease during cold periods.
"One of the most serious challenges that humanity will face in response to climate change is adapting to changes in extreme weather events. There is a major concern that heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in a warmer climate. Floods can completely devastate areas and people's livelihoods and so this knowledge could have massive implications on how we plan for our changing climate in the future."
Dr. Brian J. Soden, associate professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, said: "A surprising result is that the models appear to underestimate the increase in intensity of the heaviest rain events to warming. This suggests that model projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to human-caused global warming may also be underestimated."
This research is published in the journal Science Express on 7/08/08 titled "Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes".
Dr Richard Allan is a NERC Advanced Fellow at the ESSC (Environmental Systems Science Centre) at the University of Reading which forms an integral part of NERC's (National Environment Research Council) National Centre for Earth Observation.
The ESSC is affiliated with the Walker Institute for Climate System Research. The Walker Institute for Climate System Research brings together the unrivalled breadth and depth of climate expertise that exists within the University of Reading.
What do you think?
You will need to sign in to post a comment to this article. if you do not have an AboutMyArea account, you can join now for free.
Posts: 21Posts: 12Climate change is affecting us all and I should know. I live in an area where I cannot get mains water and my supply comes from a tarn higher up the hill. This year we have ran out of water 3 times and 2 of those times were during the winter months, due to lack of rain and snow! The summer, however, is making my water turbulent, muddy and brown due to the high amount of very heavy rainfall!
The implications of climate change are massive, but how on earth can we stop it or alter it? Surely nature will have to take its course and the damage we have done cannot be undone. Yes, we can try to limit any future damage we may cause but that will take world wide cooperation and agreement from all governments and every person on the planet to radically change their lifestyle and I cannot see that happening yet! I may have chosen to stay in the UK for my hols but nearly everyone I know is flying, or has flown, somewhere this year and even I cannot give up my car!
Finally, how do we know how the climate will react if all damaging factors were eliminated anyway?
