Ways to Use Your Local Knowledge to Bet on Current Events
|Published: 18th September 2020 14:29|
Betting on current events such as elections, TV shows and Royal Family news is becoming increasingly popular, as the range of possible bets increases. Could you improve your chances of winning by sticking to local events for which you have access to good information?
Understand the Trends
It does matter what you bet on, you need to be able to understand the trends that affect it. This applies to political bets and TV show voting as much as it does football matches or horse races, as you need to understand the changes that affect your chances.
We can see how this works by looking at the political betting options at Betfair. The odds on the next UK Primer Minister are updated to take into account the latest news. At the time of writing, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are the favourites but the odds change according to the latest news stories and opinion polls.
Part of this is about getting hold of the right information, while the other part is in interpreting the data. For instance, you might see that the favourite remains the same but that the momentum is now with someone else who has made up a lot of ground recently.
Speak to People to Get Different Opinions
You probably have your own opinion on who will win the big TV reality show or who the next Prime Minister will be, but do your opinions reflect the ideas of the majority of the public? When a matter has to be decided by a public vote, the more people you speak to about it the better.
If you ask ten people who they intend to vote for, you will start to get an idea of how the overall voting might go. Increase this sample to 100 and the picture becomes clearer still, especially if you manage to speak to a good cross-section of the different sectors of society in terms of ages, gender etc.
Political opinion polls are all about asking the right selection of people, rather than aiming for huge numbers of participants, so you might be closer to the professional poll results than you think.
Choose the Market Wisely
Do you have any reason for choosing a particular market or type of bet? For most people who live in the UK, it makes most sense to choose British-based events such as elections and referendums in this country.
It is even better if you know that your region is crucial and could prove to be the factor that settles the matter. In the UK, around100 seats were said to be too tight to call in the 2019 general election.
But what if your local knowledge extends to American politics, European elections or the Oscars? Maybe your job gives you excellent knowledge on a subject that most people aren’t very aware of, or perhaps you have a friend or relative who can give you useful information on a particular subject.
Choosing the right market doesn’t just mean that you always pick the area that most appeals to you. It is about deciding which market you could have an edge in thanks to your knowledge.
You probably know have more local knowledge that you can put to good use than you think. By taking some time to consider how best to do this, you can choose a betting market that suits your strengths.